Watching comet Panstarrs activity
Comet C/2011 L4 (Panstarrs) is very interesting comet, which going to pass around Sun only in distance of 0.3 AU. It is one of well active comets, therefore is high chance to see very bright naked eye comet on northern sky in 2013 Spring. We are monitoring comet on regular base since February 2012.
To monitor cometary dust coma R filtered exposures are used. Evolution of activity is analysed in case of total coma diameter and also in selected apertures of 10 000 km respectively 20 000 km radius around its nucleus. Data are reduced for phase of dust grains to avoid its disortion.
Comet activity grows with very close value to average speed of brightening adopted for comets with formula:
m1 = 3.46 + 5*log(D) + 10.36*log(r) mag
With absolute magnitude of 3.46 mag, posibility of nucleus disruption is highly unlikely. Total dust coma diameter growns from 50 000 km on February 2012 to 120 000 km in October 2012.
Analysis is based on 35 total coma brightness and 32 multiaperture measurements between 21. february and 7. october 2012.
If the comet will continue this brightening trend, it should reach maximum magnitude -1 and should be visible at dark sky near +1 mag with 10° - 20° long tail.